Juan Convers

There have been a some articles in the news lately discusing how the current occupant of the white house is losing ground against his democractic rival including: The remarkable collapse of Donald Trumps polling numbers and States that Trump won easily in 2016 are looking tight for him in November. The news are not surprising, giving the horrible COVID-19 numbers on the USA, its ecnomic impact and the wave of protest againts police brutaliy. The data from realclearpolitics seems to confirm this trend.

Brazil has unfornately become of the new epicenters of the COViD-19 pandemia in the world. A recent editorial at The Lancet, describes how Brazil is the country with the highest rate of transmission (R0 of 2·81), based on the data compiled by an study conducted at the Imperial College of London.

The title of the editorial ("So what?"), summarises the biggest problem the country has dealing with this disease and that is the response (or lack thereof) of its president Jair Bolsonaro. His disdain for a vast proportion of the population suffering by this disease is outrageous, but not surprising.

Boa sorte brasil, você vai precisar!

Last easter holidays I setup this COVID-19 dashboard in one of my personal domains to follow the cases around the world, particularly in Europe. I used the data provided by the Johns Hopkins university, in particular their daily cases, death and recoveries time series. Using those data points and doing some data wrangling it’s possible to get a lot of insights about what’s currently happening in the world.

The last time I blogged about this topic was exactly one month ago and there have been a lot developments since then:

• In April I mentioned the US has become the new epicenter of the COVID-19 Pandemia and that’s still the case, but on a different scale. With over 1.3 million active cases, the United States accounts for 32.5% of all cases worldwide today. The situation in New York City is much better than it was then, but there are now multiple cases in rural areas, particularly in towns with meat processing plants
• The situation in the United Kingdom is dire as well. As of yesterday they have reported 31.3k deaths and 216.5k active cases.and they have less than 1k patients recovered from the disease. Famously Boris Johnson got infected himself, required hospitalization and even ICU admission for a couple of days.
• In contrast Germany has been recognized as of the countries who has dealt with the Pandemic in a responsilbe way using a scientific based approach. There are still in the list of the Top 10 countries most affected by the disease but the death rate has been really low, during the evolution of the pandemia.
• The Kiwi strategy has been one of the most succesful ones in the world. A headline in the prestigious Lancet magazine summarises all: New Zealand eliminates COVID-19. The administratrion of Jacinda Ardern couldn't be more proud of their decisions!.

I have been walking up quite early these days. A couple of days ago I was lucky to get this beautiful and peaceful sunrise.

Talking about exponencial growth ... back on the 31st of January, when I heard the novel corona virus mentioned in the news I blogged abpit how there were "9776 cases confirmed affecting 20 countries already, with the vast majority in China", regarding this '2019-nCoV' virus as it was known back then.

2.5 months later, this number has jumped to more than 1.5 millon cases, becoming a pandemic, affecting most of the nations in the world. Italy and Spain were hard hit, as well as the US, country that has become by far the new epicenter of this disease.

The strict social distancing rules have slowed down the transmission in the communities adopting this measures (with the unfortunate side effect of paralyzing the economies). Let's cross the fingers all those efforts will contain this nasty virus.

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